The Key to Spotting Disruption Before It Happens

by Scott Anthony


The April 15 issue of The Economist published a simple chart that gave me chills. Look at it for a minute. What looks scary to you?

The chart displayed the number of pieces of mail sent by year over the last decade. When you look at the chart, the first thing you probably noticed was the precipitous decline in mail volume over the past few years. Indeed, mail volume has sagged 17 percent since 2006. Even though the postal service has furiously cut staff over that time period, it's still pleading with regulators to allow it to consider additional strategic responses to address the disruption clearly affecting its business.

That's not what scared me though. I found the years from 2000 to 2006 to be particularly frightening, when nothing much was happening in mail volume.

How could a relatively flat line be scary?

It just looked so eerily familiar. Go back and look at what happened to CD sales from 1996 to 2001. Or check out newspaper company revenues from 1996 to 2005. Or Kodak's film sales during the 1990s. Or Blockbuster's revenues in the early part of the 2000s. Or Digital Equipment Corporation's revenues in the 1980s. And on and on and on.

In the early days of transformation, market leaders tend not to feel deep pain. The transformation takes root away from the mainstream, or in a seemingly non-connected market. It's not yet good enough for mainstream markets. Or, the overall increase in consumption acts as a "rising tide" that lifts the boats in the mainstream market. This makes it easy for executives to say, "I get what you are talking about. But my business is healthy! It's all overblown."

It's only after the not-good-enough transformation gets better that a "Big Switch" begins. And when that magic tipping point hits, the switch accelerates rapidly.

The lesson for executives is that it's important to look beyond revenue or basic market share data to determine whether or not a would-be disruption is a legitimate threat. If the U.S. Postal Service had measured its market share of "pieces of communication" (which, it very well might have) it would have noticed sharp share declines even as its revenue was increasing. Similarly, while Digital Equipment Corp. might have felt great that its revenues went up from $3 billion to $11 billion during the 1980s, that growth paled in comparison to the explosive growth in the personal computer market.

Another Big Switch in the offing might be television viewership. I remember an executive from a leading cable broadcaster telling me a couple of years ago, "This YouTube thing is all hype. You add up all the hours ever spent on YouTube, and it's less aggregate time then one night of primetime."

That's correct, and while television ratings have declined over the past few years, they haven't fallen off a cliff. But I have observed my own family's habits shifting. We increasingly watch content on portable devices and our computers. For the most part, this viewing is additive, but you can see the Big Switch coming. I hope that cable executive is looking at share the right way, and responding accordingly.

Spotting transformation requires looking beyond the traditional boundaries of your business. Growing revenues can hide a looming threat that demands your immediate attention.